Relative Strenght Strategy

Sector Rotation

Sector Rotation invests in the top two performing industry sectors based on relative (cross-sectional) momentum. The strategy is a simple quantitative method that improves risk-adjusted returns.

The idea for this strategy is derived from Meb Faber's paper Relative Strength Strategies for Investing. He shows a reasonable estimate of 300-600 basis points of outperformance to a S&P 500 buy-and-hold portfolio or an equal weighted portfolio of all the industry sectors.

The biggest drawback for a relative strength strategy is that the portfolio is long-only and always fully invested. This exposes the portfolio to the risks of those particular assets, in this case to US equity risk. We can control those losses and drawdowns by adding a non-correlated asset class.

Sector Rotation is a high-risk/high-volatility strategy. It has generated impressive long-term returns, but its peaks and valleys have been higher and lower than our other strategies. We recommend Sector Rotation as an add-on strategy and suggest an allocation of no more than 15% of a portfolio.

Asset Allocation

The eleven industry sectors and protective asset are as follows (sectors order by size):

Our research has shown that using a proprietary lookback period to calculate the momentum score and limiting the holding to two assets improves returns.

Strategy rules

At the close of the last trading day of the month, calculate the momentum score for each of the eleven industry sectors and the non-correlated assets consisting of US treasury bills (cash), intermediate- and long-term bonds as non-correlated protective assets.

Choose the top two assets, allocate 1/2 to each, and hold until the last trading day of the following month.

Features

Equity Curve

Sector Rotation

Metrics

Performance Summary

Statistic

Strategy

Benchmark

Annualised Return (CAGR)

16.0%

9.6%

Annualised Volatility

15.84%

9.5%

Max. Drawdown

-12.9%

-29.5%

Sharpe Ratio

0.89

0.64

Sortino Ratio

1.52

1.07

Statistic

Stragegy

Benchmark

Positive Periods

70.0%

65.4%

Best Year

26.84%

9.0%

Worst Month

-1.79%

-10.8%

Average Trade Per Year

5.3

0

Trade Frequency

Monthly

Static

Commentary

Some industries or asset classes are more favored in a particular phase of an economic cycle. Depending on the prevailing economic situation of a period, financial market capital is moving from one sector of the economy or an asset class to another. This inevitably leads to an outperformance relative to the market in some industries and an underperformance in others.

The Sector Rotation strategy tries to capitalise on the notion that not all market industry sectors perform well at the same time. Basically, the strategy moves to sectors poised to benefit in each phase, improving returns relative to the market.

Relative strength strategies are a form of momentum investing as they seek the asset showing the strongest performance over a specific timeframe. The strong tend to get stronger, while the weak tend to get weaker. This makes sense because Wall Street loves its winners and hates its losers. Relative strength applied to industry sectors is a classic momentum investing application. Instead of employing expensive analysts crunching economic data, we simply follow an established trend for as long as it lasts before rotating into the next upcoming winner.

This is a high-risk/high-reward strategy. There will be bad months, perhaps even bad years. However, long-term evidence suggests that good times will outweigh bad ones. Utilities, health care, and consumer staples are defensive sectors showing outperformance in adverse equity market conditions. Combined with an added non-correlated asset class, the strategy has built-in protection against the downside by rotating to the best performing asset regardless of market conditions.

We use the Sector Rotation strategy in all our model portfolios, Defensive, Balanced and Offensive. We suggest an allocation of no more than 15% of a portfolio.

Features

Featured Portfolios

Combining Our Strategies To Optimized Model Portfolios

More Resistant To Market Stress

Balanced for Risks and Opportunities

Exposure To Market Opportunities

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