Momentum Strategy

Global Markets Rotation

This strategy rotates between stock index funds from four geographic regions, using relative strength methods to choose among the top two assets. Lowering portfolio volatility is achieved by integrating two fixed income assets and Gold into the momentum process. This creates a regime change overlay with momentum used for tactical and strategic asset allocation.

Global Asset Rotation is derived from Gary Antonacci's paper "Optimal Momentum: A Global Cross Asset Approach" in which he compares industry, style and geographic applications of momentum. He concludes that the geographic stock index funds give the best momentum results.

This strategy significantly enhances the benefits of global diversification to our portfolios. Adding fixed income and Gold to the universe of assets reduces volatility and drawdowns as it allows the strategy to rotate out of equities in adverse market conditions.

Asset Allocation

The four geographic regions, two fixed income and a physical asset, are as follows:

As with our other Gary Antonacci’s adopted strategies and courtesy of our in-house analysis, there are subtle differences in the assets we have chosen to represent each asset class versus those in Antonacci’s original strategy. Also, our momentum score uses shorter look-back periods than the 6 months stipulated by the original strategy. This leads to faster signals with a higher trading frequency, but slightly better returns with similar volatility.

Strategy rules

At the close on the last trading day of the month, calculate the momentum score for each of the seven asset classes.

Choose the two assets with the highest momentum score and allocate 1/2 of the portfolio to each asset. Hold until the last trading day of the following month

Features

Equity Curve

Global Markets Rotation

Metrics

Performance Summary

Statistic

Strategy

Benchmark

Annualised Return (CAGR)

11.4%

9.6%

Annualised Volatility

11.4%

9.5%

Max. Drawdown

-11.0%

-29.5%

Sharpe Ratio

0.69

0.64

Sortino Ratio

1.12

1.07

Statistic

Stragegy

Benchmark

Positive Periods

68.9%

65.4%

Best Year

27.7%

9.0%

Worst Year

-12.7%

-10.8%

Average Trade Per Year

2

0

Trade Frequency

Monthly

Static

Commentary

“Diversification is the only free lunch in investing” is a quote by Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz. It’s a metaphor that means diversification can reduce risk without sacrificing returns and involves spreading investments across different assets, geographic markets, industry sectors or asset classes. This helps to reduce the impact of a single asset or asset class underperforming. Diversification does reduce overall portfolio risk, helps to withstand volatile market conditions and reduces the impact of an negative event. However, diversification is not a free lunch because there is a cost to lower returns.

Using relative momentum to an universe of diversified global equity markets indices allows us to be fully invested in the most performing markets while staying away from regions that underperform. And instead of the usual way of lowering volatility by adding fixed income, the strategy integrates fixed income assets into the momentum process itself. This allows the strategy to rotate out of equities and into fixed income assets when they show stronger momentum, for example in adverse market conditions.

Gold and commodities typically have low cross correlation to both equities and bonds, with gold being a de facto currency as well as a commodity. In addition, gold is a hedge and diversifier, as well as a safe haven with respect to equities and bonds and adding it to the universe further improves the performance of the strategy.

The results are extraordinary risk adjusted returns at a reasonable level of volatility. Adding fixed income and other diversifying assets, such as gold, to momentum-based portfolios gives substantially more improvement than it does to buy-and-hold portfolios. In this sense, the diversification in the Global Markets Rotation offers a free lunch and a cherry on top.

Our Global Markets Rotation strategy is included in all our model portfolios.

Features

Featured Portfolios

Combining Our Strategies To Optimized Model Portfolios

More Resistant To Market Stress

Balanced for Risks and Opportunities

Exposure To Market Opportunities

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